Q4 2019 Cardano (ADA) Price Forecast: Technical And Fundamental Analysis
Cardano (ADA) is a comparatively young cryptocurrency project that was founded by Charles Hoskinson in 2014. Cardano runs on a proof-of-stake consensus decentralized network and provides a classical set of features for cryptocurrencies plus some exclusive fancy-sounding features: decentralized applications (dapps), a multi-asset ledger, verifiable smart contracts.
On June 5th, 2019 on the project’s team’s Twitter account posted the news about an update for the Cardano 2020 vision that was contained in an improved version of Cardano roadmap. The primary noteworthy things in this roadmap are five development eras: Byron, Shelly, Goguen, Basho and Voltaire. The updated roadmap demonstrates future prospects for Cardano and the proactive performance of IOHK team on the project.
The work on Cardano started in 2014 triggered by Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson who is one of the first Ethereum developers. In September 2017, an ICO for Cardano was launched during which the project’s capitalization reached half a billion dollars. It was on December 1st, 2017 the roadmap for Cardano was published mapping out the development of the project. At that time the publication was a serious price moving factor.
Cardano has been growing steadily since mid-December 2018 until now (July 4, 2019). Since mid-May 2019 up till early July the ADA price has been fluctuating in a sideways channel in the range $0.073 – $0.106 (the latest high) according to the Kraken quote, the 0,382 Fibonacci level at $0.075 acting very successfully as a support for the price.
At present, the price is below the 50-period Moving Average on the daily timeframe nearing the 0.382 Fibonacci level. The next support level is the 0.50 Fibonacci level at $0.066. As currently, the token’s price sits at around $0.08, which is below its price during the ICO when it cost $0.10, and has been at and past the $1 handle in its history, this is a good market situation for buying ADA for a mid to long-term investment.
However, in the early July a downward crossover of the 50-period Moving Average by the 20-period Moving Average is forming on the daily timeframe. In case it actually takes place it will be a marker of a bearish reversal; therefore, it will be a safer option to buy ADA at a subsequent marker of a bullish move which can be a bounce up off the 0.382 Fibonacci level or price consolidation near it in the narrow support zone above it.
Aiming at a mid to long-term investment a preliminary TP level would be $0.156, which is a 1.618 Fibonacci level (Kraken quote).
The earlier spoken about updated roadmap provides a plan for the development of Cardano project till the end of 2020. The five eras that it consists of contain technical implementations, research and prototyping. Some of the eras overlap. Thus, Byron, Shelley and Goguen started in 2017 and they are scheduled to end in 2019 as per roadmap; some earlier and some later.
The Byron era is the foundation of the project, Shelley is decentralisation, Goguen is about smart contracts, Basho is scaling and Voltaire is governance. Currently, in the middle of 2019, the project is actively working on finalising the Shelley era and implementing the programming features planned for Goguen.
In the Goguen era, the project’s development team plans to make a guarantee-based Cardano smart contracts accessible to a broader audience of users. Another goal for this era is the creation and improvement of Plutus – a language for code development which will be functional on chain as well as off chain and will simplify the execution of smart contracts. For the final stages of Goguen is planned the implementation of Marlowe – a domain-specific language based on Plutus with the purpose of simplifying the writing of smart contracts.
From the fundamental point of view, the Cardano team is doing a very consistent job that goes in line with the roadmap the updated version of which should provide new insights into the future of the projects and its token ADA. A major technical advantage of this project lies with scalability as it was initially designed as the first coin of blockchain 3.0 as promoted by its team. This may help Cardano to see broader adoption in the near future and, as a result, growth in its capitalisation.
Technically speaking, the price of the asset is very low compared with its peak price in January 2018. Therefore, it will be logical to assume that the ADA coin has a good growth potential just out of the mere principle of market cycles: after a fall a rise must follow .
In case the team performs well and delivers upon its plan outlined in the roadmap it will not be ignored by the market and its core players.
In our view, Cardano (ADA) is a good asset on the cryptocurrency market to invest into in 2019 and it may see a rise in the fourth quarter of 2019. The suggested buy levels are: $0.076, $0.066.